In a new report, S&P Global Mobility forecasts global new light vehicle sales to hit 88.3 million units in 2024, which is a 2.8% increase year-over-year. For 2023, the company projects 86 million vehicles to be sold, an 8.9% increase from 2022 levels.
According to the company, the 2024 estimate is based on supply chains improving as well as lingering pent-up consumer demand. Even so, S&P Global Mobility says it remains wary on recovery prospects due to consumer demand being challenged by elevated vehicle prices alongside challenging credit and lending conditions.
“2024 is expected to be another year of cagey recovery, with the auto industry moving beyond clear supply-side risks, into a murkier macro-led demand environment,” said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “A major concern is how natural EV demand will fare as governments consider scaling back interventionist policy support – especially for incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, and OEM planning targets,” he added.
In terms of specific market forecasts, S&P Global Mobility anticipates Europe to register 15.1 million vehicle sales (up 2.9% YoY) in 2024, while United States sales volumes next year are expected to reach 15.9 million units (up 2% YoY).
Meanwhile in China, the company forecasts 26.4 million units (up 4.2% YoY), with new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration expected to further increase to 44% in 2024 (up from 36% in 2023) thanks to improved NEV affordability and tax exemptions in the country.
On the manufacturing side of things, global light vehicle production in 2023 is expected to finish at 89.8 million units, which is 9% more than in 2022. For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts light vehicle production levels to decline by 0.4% to 89.4 million units.
“Vehicle output levels are flirting with the top of the current cycle, with faster-than-expected inventory restocking potentially colliding with real-world consumer demand levels,” said Mark Fulthorpe, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “During 2023, vehicle production has benefitted from a virtuous cycle of improving supply chains and strong order backlogs. As these conditions recede, manufacturing will have less support,” he continued.
Looking at the electrification shift, S&P Global Mobility said reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been “greatly exaggerated.” It projects battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024, accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs for a 12% market share.
The report lists four major markets, with China estimated to have a BEV share of 28.6%, while Europe (central and western) is expected to have a BEV share of 22.2%, the US with 13.2% and India with 4.1%.
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