Targeted fuel subsidy predicted to impact M40 car buyers more than B40, T20 – RHB Investment Bank

According to RHB Investment Bank, the planned subsidy rationalisation by the government will more heavily impact the mid-market segment of the automotive market. In a report highlighted by Astro Awani and NST, RHB this was because the low-income group is still expected to benefit from subsidies while high-income earners are less likely to be affected by the ending of subsidies.

“We are optimistic about the salary hikes for civil workers, with a more than 13% increase likely encouraging consumer spending on significant purchases. However, we are maintaining our earnings assumptions for now, as overall sentiment in the sector remains cautious due to uncertainty surrounding subsidy rationalisation,” it said.

The firm added that the restructuring of the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) to include a new Akaun Fleksibel (also known as Akaun 3) will have minimal impact in terms of spurring sales in the automotive sector.

Targeted fuel subsidy predicted to impact M40 car buyers more than B40, T20 – RHB Investment Bank

“It is anticipated that only RM4 billion to RM5 billion will enter the economy annually through these withdrawals. It is much less compared to the RM145 billion withdrawn by 8.1 million EPF account holders through previous pandemic-related withdrawal programs. Consequently, the withdrawal per member this time is expected to be lower,” the firm explained.

It added that the loan approval rate of year-to-date vehicle purchases reached 58% compared to 62-63% in 2022-2023, while gross loans for car purchases only increased by 2.7% despite TIV increasing by 5%. This suggests more stringent requirements for granting loans and consumers switching to more affordable cars.

In the first quarter of 2024, the total industry volume (TIV) made up more than 30% of RHB’s 2024 TIV assumption of 625,000 units. However, this is deemed to be not sustainable and the firm is not expecting sales to reach a new high and should return to “normal” levels after two record-breaking years.

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