The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) is forecasting a gradual increase in total industry volume (TIV) this year to 607,000 units, which is 2,703 units, or 0.5%, more than the 604,297 units delivered in 2019. The 2019 result marks the first time after three consecutive years (2016-2018) that TIV surpassed the 600,000-unit mark since 2015 (666,677 units).
Breaking down the figure, the association is projecting passenger vehicles to account for 552,000 units – 1,821 units or 0.3% – more than the 550,179 units recorded last year. Meanwhile, commercial vehicles are expected to see a large hike – 882 units or 1.6% – from 54,118 units in 2019 to 55,000 units this year.
Among the economic and environmental factors that were taken into account in the forecast include unexpected changes in government automotive policies and taxes, a bearish outlook on global economic growth, the persistent weak ringgit, the continued tightening of lending guidelines, the introduction of new models throughout the year, and various development projects planned.
While the forecast for 2020 is rather reserved, the association is a little more bullish about vehicles sales from 2021 to 2024. For 2021, it is predicting TIV to hit 619,200 units, which is 2% more than 2020’s projected figure. This projected upward trend will continue into 2022, where the MAA is expecting 632,220 units to be delivered. In 2023, the figure is forecasted to climb further to 646,050 units, while in 2024, it is 660,920 units.
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Predict:-
Perodua – 210,300 units sold in total for 2020
Proton – 132,000 units sold in total for 2020
Perodua is flatlining (means dead), while Proton pulses is so active.
Majority thanks to Proton 32% increase in sales target. No worries, the drop in Perodua car sales will be fully covered by Proton.
National car market share will be maintain at 56 to 58%.
Forecast:-
Perodua 177,000 units sold in 2021
Proton 172,000 units sold in 2021
Forecast:-
Proton 223,800 units sold in 2022.
Perodua 132,700 units sold in 2022.
Well looking at your past predictions, perodua certainly on the fall and proton on the rise here. I won’t dispute your explicit forecasting in the next couple of years.
Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) no added value and benefits to mesia car industry. Since 1960, for 70years only made forecasting just like the Fengshui master… but paid gaji buta.
Of course will rise because everyone will rush to buy CBU and CKD this year. Come 2021 the forecast will drop by 1-2% with Proton and Perodua reporting loss of sales due to their price sensitive segments.
Examples:-
1.3 Saga MT RM 32，800
1.0 Bezza MT RM 34,580
Hahahah, MAA forecast is like weather forecast.
Rain or shine happened or not, no one is bothered about it.
I feel like applying a job at MAA. Surely very syoik one to receive salary.
Betoi2 hahaha… Weather forecast yg Obvious.
Awan tebal dan gelap, forecast hujan turun…
Musim panas dan kering, forecast kemarau mari.
Musim banjir kat kelate, forecast monsun sampai