Global EV sales are projected to rise 30% year-on-year (YoY) to 15.1 million units in 2025, representing 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, which are expected to reach 89.6 million units (+1.7% YoY). These compare to an estimated 11.6 million units and 13.2% market share in 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility analysts.
The automotive intelligence company looked at major markets, forecasting in 2025 a 117% EV growth in India to 7.5% market share (of light vehicles), +43.4% in Central and Western Europe to 20.4% market share and +36% in the US to 11.2% market share.
It expects EVs in China to grow 19.7% to 29.7% market share, although the Financial Times cites various other analysts in forecasting that EVs could outsell ICE cars there, which suggests an over-50% market share in 2025. The disparity here could be down to ‘light vehicles’, which presumably includes pick-up trucks.
Indeed, S&P predicts new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration in China (as a percentage of passenger vehicles) to increase from 49% this year to 58% next year, although NEVs by China’s definition include plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and fuel-cell vehicles too. Cheaper battery costs and generous national and regional subsidy programmes are mentioned as driving forces.
The company expects China to sell 25.8 million vehicles in 2024 and 3% more in 2025 at 26.6 million units, “despite below par economic activity”. It cites the NEV and trade-in schemes, local government auto incentives, wider government stimulus and the continuation of the vehicle price wars as stimuli.
Regarding the US (projected 16 million units in 2024, +1.2% to 16.2 million units in 2025), S&P mentions uncertainties stemming from Donald Trump’s universal tariffs, deregulation, and wavering EV support.
On Europe (projected just under 15 million units in 2024, +0.1% to around 15 million units in 2025), it cites cautious consumers, strict 2025 emissions rules, economic recession risks, still-high car prices, tapering EV subsidies, EV tariffs, and political uncertainty in Germany and France as reasons for the flatline.
For Japan (projected under 4.4 million units in 2024, +5.4% to 4.6 million units in 2025), S&P says the prospect of US universal tariffs and weaker global economic fundamentals could hurt the country’s exports, especially to North America, although expected slower US EV growth could offer a silver lining.
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Wet dreams
Total 2024 to be 78,mil
EV 15,mil BEV 2025 (20%)
EV 9,8mil BEV China (12.6%)
EV 5,2mil BEV the rest (7.4%)
why why why only China? scam ke?
HK petrol price is RM11/l. China petrol price is RM5/l. Also ICE registration is expensive and limited in Tier 1 cities.
Competition is so great a new C-Class is RM115,000 and 3-series is RM144,000 and they are still not selling well.
Not only that. China car buyers are getting smarter. They are sick of being fleeced by overpriced European brands for decades. Look past the badge and you realized European brands are horribly outdated and unreliable. The taycan for example is doing so badly in china but of cos malaysia insurance and real estate agent buying recon units like siao la.