Targeted RON95 subsidy, OMV revisions to lower vehicle sales in Malaysia next year – analysts

Only 12 days to go before we bid goodbye to 2024, and having wrapped up November with year-to-date sales of 731,534 units, Malaysia is expected to close the year with a record total industry volume (TIV) of 800,000 units.

However, analysts expect TIV to decline next year due in part to targeted RON 95 petrol subsidies and open market value (OMV) revisions, The Star reports, with CIMB Securities predicting 755,000 units but noting that EV adoption could increase.

“National brands, led by Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd or Perodua, are expected to retain their dominant market share,” the research house said.

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) previously estimated that revising the OMV calculation could raise the average selling prices of locally-assembled (CKD) vehicles by 8%-20%, but the implementation has been deferred multiple times – the latest extension expires December 31, 2024.


Proton eMas 7 (left) launched this week; production version of Perodua eMO-II Concept due Q4 2025

“We also anticipate higher BEV adoption in 2025, driven by new model launches, new entrants and rising competition among EV players ahead of the duty exemptions for imported models ending in 2026, after which domestic assembly will take precedence,” the brokerage said, citing targeted RON 95 petrol subsidies as another potential EV-boosting factor.

As 85% of Malaysians will continue to get subsidised RON 95 petrol, this should sustain Proton and Perodua models’ affordability for first-time buyers and the mass market – CIMB Securities predicts a 65% market share for the national brands in 2025 (1H 2024, 67.8%).

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research forecasts a slightly-lower 750,000-unit TIV in 2025: “We expect the sustained strength to be driven primarily by local original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the mass-market segment (sub-RM100,000), supported by robust order backlogs for certain OEMs, availability of value-for-money models and improved consumer spending power from the civil service wage hike in December 2024 and minimum wage hike in February 2025.”

“However, growth may be constrained by production limitations, as key OEMs with remaining backlogs (such as Perodua, Proton and Toyota) are already operating at full capacity,” it noted.

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