Targeted RON95 subsidy, OMV revisions to lower vehicle sales in Malaysia next year – analysts

Targeted RON95 subsidy, OMV revisions to lower vehicle sales in Malaysia next year – analysts

Only 12 days to go before we bid goodbye to 2024, and having wrapped up November with year-to-date sales of 731,534 units, Malaysia is expected to close the year with a record total industry volume (TIV) of 800,000 units.

However, analysts expect TIV to decline next year due in part to targeted RON 95 petrol subsidies and open market value (OMV) revisions, The Star reports, with CIMB Securities predicting 755,000 units but noting that EV adoption could increase.

“National brands, led by Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd or Perodua, are expected to retain their dominant market share,” the research house said.

The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) previously estimated that revising the OMV calculation could raise the average selling prices of locally-assembled (CKD) vehicles by 8%-20%, but the implementation has been deferred multiple times – the latest extension expires December 31, 2024.


Proton eMas 7 (left) launched this week; production version of Perodua eMO-II Concept due Q4 2025

“We also anticipate higher BEV adoption in 2025, driven by new model launches, new entrants and rising competition among EV players ahead of the duty exemptions for imported models ending in 2026, after which domestic assembly will take precedence,” the brokerage said, citing targeted RON 95 petrol subsidies as another potential EV-boosting factor.

As 85% of Malaysians will continue to get subsidised RON 95 petrol, this should sustain Proton and Perodua models’ affordability for first-time buyers and the mass market – CIMB Securities predicts a 65% market share for the national brands in 2025 (1H 2024, 67.8%).

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research forecasts a slightly-lower 750,000-unit TIV in 2025: “We expect the sustained strength to be driven primarily by local original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the mass-market segment (sub-RM100,000), supported by robust order backlogs for certain OEMs, availability of value-for-money models and improved consumer spending power from the civil service wage hike in December 2024 and minimum wage hike in February 2025.”

“However, growth may be constrained by production limitations, as key OEMs with remaining backlogs (such as Perodua, Proton and Toyota) are already operating at full capacity,” it noted.

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Jonathan James Tan

While most dream of the future, Jonathan Tan dreams of the past, although he's never been there. Fantasises much too often about cruising down Treacher Road (Jalan Sultan Ismail) in a Triumph Stag that actually works, and hopes this stint here will snap him back to present reality.

 

Comments

  • ROTI CANAI on Dec 19, 2024 at 11:12 am

    Yes cars are stupidly overpriced anyway

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0
  • paanjang16 on Dec 19, 2024 at 12:17 pm

    Cars are getting too complicated, less repairable, more features integrated into touchscreens than using physical buttons and less durable. Some even removed the physical signal and wiper stalk. Doors that are electronically operated instead of a physical lever which is a safety hazard in an emergency (got cases people trap inside after an accident). More and more are ditching the spare tire too.

    #nocarpayments #ifneed9yearsyoucannotafford

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 14
    • Pendek rat on Dec 19, 2024 at 2:34 pm

      Say Tesla lah. Why say some

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 9
      • pan33 on Dec 19, 2024 at 3:05 pm

        All car brands have problems, nothing is perfect. Anyways, but with electronics, still more durability than the car without more electronics but poor safety like quality and body materials and with lots of quality issues. Even Tesla have issues but at least more reliable than toyota

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3
    • pan33 on Dec 19, 2024 at 3:01 pm

      All car brands have problems, nothing is perfect. Anyways, but with electronics, still more durability than the car without more electronics but poor safety like quality and body materials and with lots of quality issues

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2
    • ROTI CANAI on Dec 19, 2024 at 3:13 pm

      can use rapidkl best

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0
    • panjaangggsalah on Dec 19, 2024 at 3:27 pm

      Sorry to say, many won’t complaint about car with electronics nowadays as so used to it. Many are heading to move forward with more safety but not backwards

      Good reliability, Cheap maintenance and Better safety, even using more electronics

      All this criteria nowadays fit towards Honda, Chinese cars, Korean cars and Tesla

      However one thing for sure for almost all taik jamban cars from UMW Toyotaik is:

      Cheating scandal, poor quality, cheap materials and damn expensive maintenance, despite less electronics.

      Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1
      • Way to go chinese cars with tesla, honda and incoming korean cars!!

        Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0
  • Nurul Izzah on Dec 19, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Anwar menang rakyat senang

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 3
  • Janji dicapati on Dec 19, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Refer my name

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 4
  • Agree. This way will reduce traffic congestion. Good move

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0
  • Should promote EV, plug in hybrid and hybrid, these way will reduce environment….time to move on…this will help better

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1
  • Sherlock on Dec 22, 2024 at 8:18 pm

    No shit sherlock

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0
 

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