Proton vs Perodua at half-time 2026 – the closest national car race since 2013, who will win in 2026?

For most of the past decade, Malaysia’s national car race has not really been a race. Perodua pulled ahead of Proton in 2006 and simply kept going, and by 2018 it was outselling its rival by more than four to one. That is what makes the first half of 2026 remarkable: the gap is closing again, and quickly.

Proton registered 98,010 vehicles between January and June, up 40.5% on the same period last year and its best first half since 2002. Perodua remains far ahead with 158,295 units, but that is down 4.7% on a year ago.

Run the numbers and the shift is stark. In the first half of 2025, Perodua outsold Proton by 2.4 to one; this year it is 1.6 to one, the closest the two have been since 2013. Proton’s 23.9% share of the total market is its highest for a first half since 2011, while Perodua’s 38.7%, still enormous, is its lowest since 2022.

Between them the national brands took 62.6% of everything registered in Malaysia, so the duopoly itself is as strong as ever; what is changing is the balance within it.

Some history is useful here. In the early 2000s Proton was the market leader, with more than half of all registrations and the Wira as the country’s best-selling car.

Then came the long slide: by the first half of 2018, before the Geely partnership began to bear fruit, Proton managed just 27,105 registrations and a 9.1% share. Eight years on, its half-year volume has grown to 3.6 times that low point. This is still a long way from the 114,443 units of its record 2002 first half, but the direction is unmistakable.

What is driving it? Mostly the Saga, up 42.8% to 44,234 units following last November’s MC3 update, which kept it the cheapest sedan in the country. But the growth is broader than one model: the X50 is up 32.3%, the S70 up 38.4% and the X90 up 55.9%.

Then there is the new-energy effect: between the e.MAS 5 (10,665 units), the e.MAS 7 PHEV (4,074) and the e.MAS 7 (2,865), nearly one in five Protons registered this year has been a plug-in of some kind, volume that simply did not exist two years ago.

It is not all one-way traffic within Proton’s own line-up, it must be said. The Persona halved, the Iriz fell 59%, the X70 was down 26.9%, and the fully electric e.MAS 7 dropped 28.4% as buyers migrated to the cheaper e.MAS 5 and the plug-in hybrid version. The growth is concentrated in the Saga, the newer SUVs and the e.MAS range, and Proton will want a broader base than that eventually.

On the other side of the ledger, Perodua’s softness is almost as broad as Proton’s strength. The Bezza, up 2.8%, is the only established model in growth. The Axia is down 9.2%, the Myvi 14.7% and the Alza 9.7%, while the Ativa and Aruz have fallen 39.6% and 38.4% respectively.

Much of that SUV decline is self-inflicted: the new Traz has done 10,753 units in its first half-year, but the arithmetic suggests it has largely absorbed Ativa and Aruz buyers rather than adding volume. And where Proton’s EVs are flying, Perodua’s first effort, the QV-E, has managed just 209 units so far.

All of this comes to a head in the battle for Malaysia’s best-selling car. At the halfway mark the Bezza leads with 47,463 units to the Saga’s 44,234, a gap of just 3,229. Twelve months ago, the gap between these two at half-time was 15,190 units.

The monthly crown has already changed hands twice this year: the Saga took January with 10,285 units, its best single month in the 26 years of JPJ data we hold, and won again in May, with the Bezza taking the other four months.

The stakes are historic. No Proton has finished the year as Malaysia’s best-selling model since the Wira in 2003; Perodua has held the title for 22 straight years through the Kancil, Myvi, Axia and Bezza. A 3,229-unit deficit over six months is around 540 units a month, well within the swing we have seen this year. The Saga has a genuine chance of ending that drought.

The second half will decide plenty. Perodua is traditionally strong in the year-end push, and its order bank tends to deliver a big December. Proton, for its part, is on pace for roughly 196,000 registrations this year, which would be its best full year since 2002, and it needs e.MAS supply and Saga momentum to hold.

Either way, the days of writing the national race off as a procession are over. You can follow it month by month on our car sales data tool.

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